High-Frequency Indicators: Where to Look for Signs of Recovery

Since the pandemic began, 业务活动中断情况因地区而异, and often from one week to the next, according to the severity of local COVID-19 outbreaks. 不幸的是,许多政府官方统计数据被用来衡量美国人的健康状况.S. economy are backward looking and somewhat delayed.

一国国内生产总值(GDP)的变化表明经济增长或萎缩的速度, 但经济分析局直到每个季度结束一个月后才公布第一个GDP估算值. GDP increased at a 4.2020年第四季度,美国经济增长率为3%,但出现了最严重的年度下降(-3.5%) since 1946.1

病毒状况的迅速变化——或好或坏——可以使许多月度报告衡量就业情况, consumer spending, 而当产品发布的时候,它们就显得过时和无关紧要了. Consequently, 经济学家和投资者一直在关注更及时的数据来源,以监测疫情对全国的经济影响. This information is reported every week, and in some cases every day, 通过政府机构或私人公司获得关键业务见解.

以下是一些高频指标,可能有助于评估经济复苏的进展.

Employment Picture

美国劳工部的一份每周报告包括了最近失业的工人根据州计划申请失业保险福利的人数, 以及失业人员继续申请失业救济的人数. 这可以让我们初步了解各州和全国的劳动力市场是在改善还是在恶化. For the week ending March 20, 2021, first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 684,000, 这是自2020年3月中旬经济封锁开始前以来的最低水平.2

美国人力资源协会(American Staffing Association)发布的美国人力资源协会人力资源指数(ASA Staffing Index)跟踪了每周临时和合同工就业情况的变化. 许多雇主在雇用额外的正式雇员之前,都要依靠临时的帮助, 因此,人力资源代理机构的就业趋势往往会领先非农就业3到6个月. As of March 8–14, 2021, there were 11.2% more staffing jobs than there were one year earlier.3

Consumer Behavior

自营的约翰逊红皮书指数(Johnson Redbook Index)是根据数千家大型百货和服装零售商的代表性样本每周的数据来捕捉消费者支出趋势的. In an encouraging sign, this key index improved 9.4% year-over-year on March 23, 2021.4

预订应用“OpenTable”一直在关注新冠疫情对餐饮业的影响, 提供可作为全球本地经济“开放程度”指标的数据(opentable.com/state-of-industry). 每日数据显示,与2019年同一周的同一天相比,在餐馆就餐的人数发生了变化. As of March 28, 2021, the weekly average number of U.S. seated diners was still down 29% from 2019, but had bounced back considerably from the last week in February, when the average was 40% below 2019.5

Mobility and Travel

其他科技公司也推出了一些工具,旨在帮助世界各地的公共卫生官员和政策制定者利用从智能手机应用程序收集的数据监测日常移动趋势. 谷歌的社区移动报告显示了去杂货店等地方的次数的变化, retail shops, and parks (google.com/covid19/mobility). Apple’s Mobility Trends Reports (covid19.apple.com/mobility)显示了步行请求(自2019年1月以来)的变化, driving, and public transportation trips, the latter of which have been slower to recover.6

The number of people who pass through U.S. 运输安全管理局(tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). 2021年3月21日,春假高峰期导致航空旅客人数超过1人.5 million for the first time in about a year. Still, this total was far below the 2.2 million air travelers on the same Sunday in 2019.7

STR每周发布的酒店入住率是消费者和企业愿意在旅游上花钱的另一个良好指标. U.S. hotel occupancy hit 58.在截至2021年3月20日的一周内,这一数字为9%,是一年来的最高水平. 更重要的是,该行业已经恢复了2019年同类入住率的近85%.8

Real-Time Tracker

In May 2020, Harvard-based nonprofit Opportunity Insights, 与几家私营部门的高频数据提供商合作, launched a real-time Economic Tracker (tracktherecovery.org) as a free public service. Interactive charts show day-to-day changes in U.S. debit- and credit-card spending, small-business revenue, employment, online job postings, and time spent outside the home. In addition to nationwide statistics, 进步中的差距可以通过收入和行业来消除, as well as by state or metro area.

Fed Indexes

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI), which is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, signals the state of the U.S. economy based on 10 different indicators of consumer behavior, the labor market, and production that are available daily or weekly. The WEI is scaled to the four-quarter GDP growth rate, 这意味着,如果当前的经济活动持续一年,每周的结果是可以预期的经济增长吗. For the week ending March 20, 2021, the WEI jumped to 4.14% from –0.33% the previous week.9

In addition, 亚特兰大联邦储备银行对实际国内生产总值的变化(GDPNow)进行了连续的估计,该估计是根据一个纳入了最新经济数据的模型进行更新的. 2021年3月26日,2021年第一季度的增长预期为4.7%.10

这些估计是基于目前的情况,可能会发生变化,可能不会实现. Neither is an official forecast of the Federal Reserve. When investing, 一般来说,明智的做法是基于你的个人目标来维持一个长期的方法, time frame, and risk tolerance, rather than react too quickly to shifting economic dynamics.